Oscars 2024: Predictions & grudges

Insecure Oscar prognosticators are very dangerous, aren't they? I'm secure.

I consider it to be a pretty great year when there’s only one Best Picture nominee that I can’t stand.

This year that honor falls on Poor Things, a movie whose vapid style beat me over the head for 2.5 hours and gave me motion sickness. The proliferation of Yorgos Lanthimos in the Academy is baffling to me, especially while a truly original stylist like Wes Anderson seems to have fallen out of favor (at least in the feature-length categories).

While her performance in Poor Things is one of the least annoying things in the movie, if Emma Stone prevails in Best Actress it will be further proof that the Academy just likes loud noises. (In case you’re wondering, this is the ‘grudges’ portion of the post).

I didn’t see American Fiction, but I thought the rest of the Best Picture nominees were fine (Maestro, Anatomy of a Fall), pretty good (Barbie, Past Lives), very good (Oppenheimer, The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest), or in a class of their own (Killers of the Flower Moon).

Anyway, below are my Oscar predictions: Who I think will win, should win, and who was left out. Because of the restrictions on post length for these in email, I will only be writing about a few of these at length. (I also don’t have that much to say about a lot of the categories. Like I don’t really have grudges in the Costume or Sound categories).

Best Picture

The Nominees: American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Past Lives, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Will Win: Oppenheimer has been steamrolling over this awards season. The opportunity to give Christopher Nolan his due for a movie that also made a lot of money will be irresistible to the voters. It also helps that the movie is good!

Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon was the best film of 2023, and it would be lovely to see it get recognized as such. Not gonna happen though! Martin Scorsese continues to use the vast resources streaming services are willing to give him to create some of his richest, most profoundly introspective work.

Left Out: Asteroid City and May December are the two most glaring omissions here. Anyway, here are my 10 Best Pictures of 2023.

Best Director

The Nominees: Jonathan Glazer- The Zone of Interest, Yorgos Lanthimos- Poor Things, Christopher Nolan- Oppenheimer, Martin Scorsese- Killers of the Flower Moon

Will Win: Nolan, for the reasons stated above!

Should Win: Martin Scorsese continues to use the vast resources streaming services are willing to give him to create some of his richest, most profoundly introspective work.

Left Out: Wes Anderson, Todd Haynes, and Kelly Reichardt will simply have to settle for being risk-taking masters of their craft that the Academy doesn’t really get.

Best Actor

The Nominees: Bradley Cooper- Maestro, Colman Domingo- Rustin, Paul Giamatti- The Holdovers, Cillian Murphy- Oppenheimer, Jeffrey Wright- American Fiction

Will Win: This will be another win for Oppenheimer. It’s going to be a pretty repetitive ceremony. Cillian Murphy anchors a huge ensemble while digging into the inner psyche of nuclear physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer. It’s also his first time leading a Nolan film after working with him for most of his career, so it’s another flower-giving moment.

Should Win: I have no problem with Murphy! My top pick is Giamatti, though.

Left Out: Charles Melton was a lead in May December, so I will be complaining here even though he campaigned in the Supporting Actor category! Leonardo DiCaprio was also astonishing in Killers of the Flower Moon, and I was surprised the other two main actors in the movie were nominated and he wasn’t.

Best Actress

The Nominees: Annette Bening- Nyad, Lily Gladstone- Killers of the Flower Moon, Sandra Huller- Anatomy of a Fall, Carey Mulligan- Maestro, Emma Stone- Poor Things

Will Win: This category is the one that’s most up in the air. Based on the precursor awards, it’s a neck-and-neck race between Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. I am going to go with my heart here and pick Gladstone, whose haunting turn in Killers of the Flower Moon radiates with classic movie star screen presence.

Left Out: Since she was also snubbed, I will use this space to say that I consider Julianne Moore a co-lead in May December and I will again be airing my grievances here instead of the Supporting Actress category.

Best Supporting Actor

The Nominees: Sterling K. Brown- American Fiction, Robert De Niro- Killers of the Flower Moon, Robert Downey Jr.- Oppenheimer, Ryan Gosling- Barbie, Mark Ruffalo- Poor Things

Will Win: More flowers! More Oppenheimer! After spending the better part of the last 15 years destroying cinema in the Marvel Cinematic Universe, Robert Downey Jr. will win for Oppenheimer. If it sounds like I’m bitter, it’s because I am. ‘Grudges’ was in the title of the post, after all! He was fine in the movie, maybe the 8th or 9th best of its giant ensemble. Whatever!

Should Win: De Niro gives one of his best performances in Killers of the Flower Moon, and I wish it was between him and Gosling.

Left Out: You could fill this category up with other supporting players from Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon, or Asteroid City.

Best Supporting Actress

The Nominees: Emily Blunt- Oppenheimer, Danielle Brooks- The Color Purple, America Ferrera- Barbie, Jodie Foster- Nyad, Da’Vine Joy Randolph- The Holdovers

Will Win: No flowers for Oppenheimer! Da’Vine Joy Randolph has been the front-runner for most of this awards season, and will take home the Oscar for her funny, tragic turn in The Holdovers.

Left Out: Tilda Swinton was amazing in her appearance late in David Fincher’s The Killer, as calculating and sinister as her Oscar-winning turn in Michael Clayton.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Nominees: American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Will Win: American Fiction. Didn’t see it!

Should Win: I’ve seen the other 4, and I would pick Barbie. Good script!

Left Out: Killers of the Flower Moon!

Best Original Screenplay

The Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Maestro, May December, Past Lives

Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall, but Past Lives could pull off a win too. I don’t really care either way, they’re both fine.

Should Win: May December only getting a nomination in this category doesn’t sit right with me, but it is easily the most deserving of these nominees.

Left Out: Asteroid City, Passages, Afire, Showing Up, and a couple of other movies that never really had a shot.

Best Cinematography

The Nominees: El Conde, Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Will Win: Oppenheimer, again!

Should Win: Killers of the Flower Moon, again!

Left Out: Asteroid City, again!

Remaining Categories (Will Win/Should Win)

Best Editing: Oppenheimer/Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Original Song: “What Was I Made For?”- Barbie/That’s fine!

Best Original Score: Oppenheimer/Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Sound: Oppenheimer/The Zone of Interest

Best Costume Design: Barbie/Killers of the Flower Moon

Best Makeup & Hair: Maestro/Maestro

Best Production Design: Poor Things/Barbie

Best Visual Effects: Godzilla Minus One/Godzilla Minus One

Best International Feature: The Zone of Interest/The Zone of Interest

Best Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse/The Boy and the Heron

Best Documentary: 20 Days in Mariupol/Didn’t see any of these

Best Animated Short: WAR IS OVER/Didn’t see any of these

Best Documentary Short: The ABCs of Book Banning/Didn’t see any of these

Best Live Action Short: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar/Yay Wes Anderson will have an Oscar